Market Report

Beef Insights

February 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

The Canadian beef market remains volatile, with high prices driven by tight supply and strong U.S. demand. Packers are deliberately maintaining lean inventory levels, which helps sustain pricing power even in a market where consumer spending is under pressure.

Rib and loin prices remain stable, providing some predictability for operators, however, ground beef prices are climbing due to a reduction in cow slaughter and strong demand for lean trimmings. These increases are placing further strain on operators who rely on ground beef for popular menu items like burgers.

Beef demand usually slows in January and February as post-holiday spending drops. However, these months are not expected to offer substantial pricing relief, with the tight cattle supply continuing to underpin elevated costs. 

Looking ahead, foodservice operators should expect high prices through early 2025, making strategic purchasing and menu planning key to controlling costs.

What Can You do?

• Diversify Beef Offerings: Incorporate cost-effective cuts
• like briskets, and shoulder clods for slow-cooked or marinated dishes that offer rich flavour at a lower cost.
• Focus on Portion Control: Reduce portion sizes for premium cuts like rib eyes, striploins, and tenderloins, pairing them with hearty sides such as roasted vegetables.
• Leverage Seasonal Ingredients: Pair beef with winter vegetables like squash or parsnips for hearty seasonal offerings that justify premium pricing.

• Braised Beef Shoulder: Slow-cooked shoulder clod with red wine reduction, served with mashed sweet potatoes and roasted carrots.
• Beef and Barley Stew: Tender beef chunks, barley, and root vegetables simmered in rich stock, ideal for winter menus
• Beef Brisket Poutine: Slow-roasted brisket atop crispy fries, smothered in gravy and melted cheese curds.

Pork Insights

February 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

For restaurant operators, the pork market presents both challenges and opportunities. While some market factors are driving up prices other dynamics are creating cost-effective opportunities for operators to strategically feature pork on their menus.

Cuts like loins, spareribs, and butts remain relatively accessible. Additionally, shoulder cuts are still available at attractive prices, making them excellent choices for menu items that highlight value while maintaining customer appeal.

For independent operators, pork remains a versatile and cost-effective protein that can help balance rising costs in other protein categories. By leveraging pork’s relative affordability, operators can maintain profitability and offer value-driven options that resonate with budget-conscious diners.

What Can You Do?

• Leverage Shoulder Cuts: Utilize versatile and affordable shoulder cuts, such as picnics for slow-cooked dishes, pulled pork, or braised entrees. These cuts are ideal for creating flavourful meals that appeal to budget-conscious diners.
• Promote Pork as a Beef Alternative: Emphasize pork dishes as a cost-effective substitute for high-priced beef items. Pork’s versatility allows it to shine in burgers as well as sandwiches.
• Experiment with Global Flavours: Explore international preparations—such as tacos or Asian-inspired stir-fries to reinvent traditional pork cuts and attract adventurous diners.

Menu Suggestions:

• Maple-Glazed Pork Loin: Roasted pork loin with a maple and mustard glaze, served alongside seasonal root vegetables.
• Pulled Pork Shepherd’s Pie: Slow-cooked pulled pork topped with mashed sweet potatoes and baked until golden.
• Korean BBQ Pork Belly: Marinated pork belly slices grilled to perfection, served with pickled vegetables and steamed rice.

Poultry Insights

February 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

Despite production cuts in late 2024, breast and leg prices have increased, climbing higher than anticipated due to limited availability. Retailers have actively featured chicken, taking advantage of its cost-competitiveness against other expensive proteins. Wings are trading at steady seasonal levels but face rising demand and prices as imports from Brazil and Chile remain constrained.

On the supply side, Canadian production is forecast to grow modestly in the first quarter of 2025, while imports are expected to increase by 20% compared to 2024. This influx should stabilize prices, but operators should still anticipate seasonal fluctuations.

The affordability and versatility of chicken continue to make it an excellent menu option, especially during a time of tight consumer spending.

What Can You Do?

• Focus on Seasonal Favourites: Incorporate winter-themed dishes like chicken pot pie, creamy chicken stews, or herb-roasted whole birds to appeal to comfort food cravings.
• Leverage Less Expensive Cuts: Utilize legs and thighs to create high-margin dishes like braised chicken.
• Maximize Versatility: Use chicken across all menu categories–grilled chicken salads, sandwiches, and hearty entrees can help you create a varied menu while controlling costs.

Menu Suggestions:

• Herb-Roasted Chicken: A whole chicken roasted with rosemary and thyme, served with garlic mashed potatoes and roasted root vegetables.
• Grilled Chicken Caesar Wraps: Juicy grilled chicken paired with crisp romaine, Parmesan, and creamy Caesar dressing, served in a wrap.
• BBQ Pulled Chicken Sandwich: Slow-cooked pulled chicken in a tangy BBQ sauce, topped with coleslaw, and served on a brioche bun.

Seafood Insights

February 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

The North American seafood market is experiencing notable price fluctuations across various categories. Groundfish species, such as cod and haddock, are witnessing firming prices due to limited availability. This trend is expected to persist as supply constraints continue to impact the market.

Lobster prices have surged to their highest levels in four years, driven by lower seasonal catches. Both lobster meat and tails are experiencing significant price increases, with expectations of continued escalation until the new season commences.

In contrast, the shrimp market remains relatively stable. However, analysts anticipate potential price increases in 2025 due to less-than-adequate fishing and production levels.

Salmon prices are holding steady, offering an option for operators seeking a premium seafood choice without significant cost volatility.

What Can You Do?

• Diversify Seafood Offerings: Incorporate a variety of seafood options to mitigate the impact of rising prices in specific categories. For instance, consider featuring mussels or clams, which may offer more stable pricing.
• Emphasize Sustainable Sourcing: This approach will appeal to environmentally conscious diners.
• Adjust Menu Pricing Strategically: Review your menu prices to reflect current market conditions, ensuring that increased costs are appropriately accounted for without deterring customers.
• Promote Value-Added Dishes: Create dishes that combine premium seafood with cost-effective sides to maintain margin while offering perceived value to customers.

Menu Suggestions:

• Seafood Paella: A Spanish-inspired dish featuring a mix of seafood like shrimp, mussels, and clams, combined with saffron-infused rice and vegetables.
• Grilled Salmon with Mango Salsa: Fresh Atlantic salmon fillet topped with a vibrant mango salsa, served alongside seasonal vegetables.
• Shrimp and Grits: A Southern classic featuring sautéed shrimp served over creamy, buttery grits, garnished with fresh herbs.

Current Key Produce Market Trends 

General 2025 Trend

• Vegetable prices expected to increase by 5-7% in 2025
• Fruit prices expected to increase by 1-3%

Strategies to Mitigate Price Increases

• Seasonal Menu Planning: Focus on in-season options like root vegetables (turnips, parsnips, carrots) and winter squash to reduce costs and create hearty, seasonal dishes.
• Portion Adjustments: Reduce portions of expensive produce while balancing plates with grains or legumes.
• Creative Substitutions: Replace high-cost ingredients, like imported greens, with affordable, nutrient-rich options like cabbage or kale.
• Preserve Versatility: Feature stable, versatile ingredients like sweet potatoes, beets, and apples in soups, salads, and desserts.
• Leverage Technology: Use predictive inventory management tools to optimize purchasing and reduce waste.

Price Alerts as of February 1, 2025

• Lettuce – Freezing temperatures in the Arizona-California desert region are leading to quality issues. Prices remain high, with continued volatility likely.
• Bell Peppers – Green bell pepper prices are decreasing slightly, supported by strong supplies from Mexico.
• Red bell peppers, however, remain steady, stay steady, with gradual increases ahead.
• Tomatoes – Beefsteak tomatoes are experiencing significant market pressure due to tight supplies and high demand. 
• Broccoli and Cauliflower – Cool weather delays growth, reducing yields. Broccoli prices stay stable, but cauliflower costs rise due to limited supply and frost damage.
• Avocados – Tight supplies from Mexico persist, keeping prices elevated as demand surges ahead of the Super Bowl. California’s season is just beginning, with higher volumes expected in March.
• Melons – Cantaloupe and honeydew supplies remain limited following weather disruptions in Central America. Expect elevated pricing through the winter months.

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