Market Report

Beef Insights

January 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

Beef prices remain elevated as 2024 concluded with counter the usual seasonal pricing trend, particularly in the rib and other premium foodservice cuts. U.S. consumer demand for beef has been robust despite high pricing, but Canadian foodservice operators are seeing slower beef movement due to the weaker Canadian dollar and consumer spending constraints. Retailers have shifted focus, limiting beef offerings and emphasizing lower-cost proteins. While overall production levels are consistent with 2023, the ongoing impact of herd liquidation from previous years ensures tight supplies and sustained price pressure. The first quarter of 2025 offers little relief for restaurant operators, with ribs likely to remain high through early spring. Chuck and round cuts, popular for grinding, continue to see strong demand, keeping prices firm.

What Can You do?

• Focus on Versatile Cuts: Highlight affordable yet flavourful options such as menu options from the chuck round, or brisket. These cuts can be slow-cooked or braised to create hearty, appealing dishes.
• Emphasize Value-Driven Portions: Reduce portion sizes for premium cuts to maintain profitability while offering customers affordable options.
• Innovate with Seasonal Pairings: Feature beef in soups, stews, or pot pies paired with winter vegetables to enhance value perception.
• Leverage Limited-Time Specials: Promote shareable dishes like sliders or flatbreads using beef to draw attention without overextending food costs.

• Braised Short Rib Stew: Slow-cooked short ribs with root vegetables in a rich red wine broth.
• Beef Shepherd’s Pie: Savoury ground beef layered with creamy mashed potatoes and baked to perfection.
• Winter Beef Chili: A hearty blend of ground chuck, beans, and winter spices topped with shredded cheese.
• Smoked Brisket Sandwich: Tender slices of smoked brisket served on fresh bread with pickles and tangy slaw.

Pork Insights

January 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

The pork market remains dynamic, with significant developments affecting pricing and supply. Despite initial forecasts, pork production declined in the last quarter of 2024, driven by reduced hog availability and unexpectedly strong demand. This imbalance caused a counter-seasonal rise in prices, particularly for key cuts such as hams and bellies [bacon]. However, looking forward to early 2025, production is expected to recover, leading to steady-to-lower prices. For restaurant operators, pork remains a compelling option due to its relative affordability compared to beef and its versatility across menu applications.

Operators can expect competitive pricing for tenderloins, ribs, and loins, making these cuts excellent choices for winter menus. However, hams might still experience pricing pressure due to lingering holiday demand.

What Can You Do?

• Highlight Pork Value: Position pork as a cost-effective alternative to high-priced beef, leveraging its versatility across menu offerings like sandwiches, roasts, and mains.
• Promote Comfort Foods: Emphasize hearty, slow-cooked pork dishes such as stews or braised shoulders, which are perfect for winter dining.
• Run Pork Promotions: Utilize promotional pricing for popular cuts like ribs or loins to attract budget-conscious diners.
• Plan Around Seasonal Trends: Anticipate price stabilization for most pork cuts and adjust your menu pricing to reflect market conditions.

Menu Suggestions:

• Honey-Glazed Pork Belly: Slow-roasted with a sweet and savory glaze, served over winter squash puree.
• Braised Pork Shoulder Stew: A comforting dish with root vegetables, herbs, and a rich broth.
• Pork Tenderloin Medallions: Pan-seared and finished with a maple Dijon sauce, paired with roasted Brussels sprouts.
• Classic Ribs: Slow-cooked baby back ribs with a smoky BBQ glaze, served with coleslaw and fries.

Poultry Insights

January 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

The Canadian chicken market ended 2024 on an unusual note, deviating from its typical seasonal trend. Significant production cuts increased prices, even as demand showed signs of softening. Retailers heavily promoted chicken, boosting sales, while tight supplies from both domestic and imported sources allowed sellers to maintain pricing power. Heading into 2025, chicken remains a cost-effective alternative to beef, which continues to face high price pressures.

• Breasts: Prices are projected to rise modestly (+4%) during the winter months, supported by consistent demand.
• Wings: Wing prices are expected to remain stable (+2%), slightly below seasonal averages.
• Legs: Leg prices are projected to increase by +4%, reflecting stronger-than-usual winter demand.

While demand has softened compared to 2023, chicken’s affordability and versatility make it an attractive protein choice for operators looking to manage costs and maintain menu appeal.

What Can You Do?

• Expand Chicken Offerings: Use chicken as a versatile and affordable alternative to beef. Offer creative options like bowls, tacos, or comfort-driven entrees.
• Leverage Price Stability: Fixed-price combos or family-style chicken meals can attract value-seeking customers.
• Seasonal Specialties: Highlight hearty, winter-friendly dishes like braised chicken thighs or slow-cooked stews.

Menu Suggestions:

• Creamy Chicken and Wild Rice Soup: A hearty winter soup featuring shredded chicken, wild rice, and seasonal vegetables in a creamy broth.
• Maple-Glazed Chicken Drumsticks: Sweet and savoury drumsticks served with roasted root vegetables and a side of herbed couscous.
• Spicy Chicken Tacos: Grilled chicken seasoned with smoky spices, topped with pickled onions and cilantro-lime crema, served on warm tortillas.
• Chicken Parmesan Bake: A comforting casserole with layers of breaded chicken, marinara, and melted cheese, served with garlic bread.
• Lemon Thyme Roasted Chicken: Whole roasted chicken infused with lemon and thyme, served with seasonal greens and a side of mashed potatoes.

Seafood Insights

January 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

The seafood market faces mixed trends as we enter 2025. While some species experience stable pricing, others face continued volatility due to supply chain disruptions and shifting demand patterns. Rising import costs, weather-related challenges, and robust holiday demand for premium seafood items have all influenced the current market landscape.

• Shrimp: Prices for imported shrimp are rising, driven by increased shipping costs and tight supplies. However, white shrimp remains a versatile and accessible option for operators.
• Salmon: Atlantic salmon prices have stabilized slightly, offering opportunities for operators to feature it in winter menus as a premium yet approachable item.
• Crab: Strong holiday demand pushed prices for Snow and King Crab higher, with limited relief expected in the first quarter.
• Whitefish: Cod and haddock prices are climbing due to reduced inventories, while pollock remains a cost-effective option.
• Scallops: Poor fishing conditions and inventory challenges have led to higher prices, particularly for larger sea scallops.
• Lobster: Live and processed lobster prices remain elevated due to weaker-than-expected catches, though warm-water tails offer a more stable alternative.

What Can You Do?

• Leverage Versatile Seafood: Utilize lower cost species to offer high-quality options without breaking the bank.
• Seasonal Specials: Highlight premium items like lobster or scallops as limited-time offerings to manage costs while drawing customer interest.
• Promote Sustainable Choices: Appeal to eco-conscious diners by featuring responsibly sourced seafood options.
• Optimize Portions: Reduce portion sizes for higher-cost species while maintaining strong value perception through complementary side dishes.

Menu Suggestions:

• Creamy Salmon Chowder: A rich chowder with Atlantic salmon, potatoes, and winter vegetables, served with crusty bread.
• Garlic Butter Shrimp Linguine: White shrimp sautéed in garlic butter, tossed with linguine, and topped with fresh parsley.
• Lobster Mac and Cheese: A decadent blend of warm-water lobster, creamy cheese sauce, and pasta, baked to golden perfection.
• Pollock Fish Tacos: Crispy pollock served in soft tortillas with shredded cabbage, spicy aioli, and a squeeze of lime.

These menu options balance premium flavours with cost-effective ingredients, helping operators manage seafood price fluctuations while maintaining quality.

Current Key Produce Market Trends 

General 2025 Trend

• Vegetable prices expected to increase by 5-7% in 2025
• Fruit prices expected to increase by 1-3%

Strategies to Mitigate Price Increases

• Seasonal Menu Planning: Focus on in-season options like root vegetables (turnips, parsnips, carrots) and winter squash to reduce costs and create hearty, seasonal dishes.
• Portion Adjustments: Reduce portions of expensive produce while balancing plates with grains or legumes.
• Creative Substitutions: Replace high-cost ingredients, like imported greens, with affordable, nutrient-rich options like cabbage or kale.
• Preserve Versatility: Feature stable, versatile ingredients like sweet potatoes, beets, and apples in soups, salads, and desserts.
• Leverage Technology: Use predictive inventory management tools to optimize purchasing and reduce waste.

Price Alerts as of January 1, 2025

• Lettuce: Iceberg and romaine markets are stabilizing after months of elevated pricing. Improved growing conditions in Arizona and California have boosted yields.
• Bell Peppers: Green bell pepper markets are stabilizing, while red and yellow peppers continue to face limited availability. Increased shipments from Mexico should ease prices soon.
• Tomatoes: Pricing for round and Roma tomatoes continues to face pressure due to limited supply and consistent demand from both retail and foodservice. Grape tomatoes remain steady, while cherry tomato availability is improving.
• Broccoli and Cauliflower: Strong demand persists for both broccoli and cauliflower, but improved yields in Arizona and California are helping to stabilize markets.
• Avocados: Supplies remain tight due to holiday-related delays in Mexico. Smaller sizes are more affordable, while larger fruit continues to command a premium.
• Melons: Cantaloupe and honeydew supplies remain limited following weather disruptions in Central America. Expect elevated pricing through the winter months. expected to bolster supplies.

Several key produce items are experiencing price increases due to weather impacts and high demand. Adjusting menus and exploring alternative ingredients such as frozen options may help manage your menu costs.