Market Report

Beef Insights

June 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

Beef prices remain historically high, driven by tightening North American supplies and strong seasonal demand. Middle meats like striploins and ribeyes continue to climb as retailers promote premium cuts for Father’s Day and Canada Day. Reduced cattle availability and elevated feed costs are limiting production, keeping wholesale pricing elevated despite a broader easing in overall inflation. In fact, beef prices in Canada are up 16.2% year-over-year, outpacing most other food categories. With continued export activity and high demand for grilling cuts, relief is unlikely in the short term.

What Can You Do?

• Smaller Portions & Shareables: Offer smaller portion sizes, shareable beef dishes, and value-driven combo meals to maintain perceived value.
• Lower-Cost Cuts: Use more affordable cuts like chuck and sirloin for braising or grilling.
• Smart Menu Design: Continue to manage rising beef costs with thoughtful and strategic menu planning.
• Protein Variety: Diversify protein offerings, especially at lunch, to manage food cost percentages and satisfy value-conscious guests.

• Grilled Sirloin Steak Bowl with Seasonal Veg, Quinoa, and Chimichurri
• Braised Beef Chuck Ragù over Polenta with Shaved Parmesan
• Classic Smash Burger with House Pickles and Garlic Aioli
• Korean BBQ Flank Steak Lettuce Wraps with Pickled Veg and Sesame Glaze

Pork Insights

June 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

The pork market remains volatile, with Canadian per capita consumption in 2024 dropping by an estimated 16%, a stark reversal from the previous year’s surge. While exports have normalized, tighter supply combined with rising input costs is placing upward pressure on prices. Restaurant operators are seeing firmer prices persist, especially for ribs and loins.

Overall, pork demand appears softer than expected. Price increases hinge on a rebound in consumer confidence and more retail features. Pork remains the best margin opportunity for restaurant operators.

• Loins: Prices remain higher than expected due to export pull and limited retail discounting.
• Ribs: Lack seasonal strength; demand is lukewarm even as supply tightens. This offers a significant opportunity.

What Can You Do?

• Rework Menus Around Value Cuts: Shoulder and pulled pork remain cost-effective and versatile, ideal for both sandwiches and bowls.
• Bundle for Value: Combine pork entrées with seasonal sides in limited-time offers to help justify pricing.
• Watch Retail Flyers: Menu pork cuts that aren’t being featured in grocery ads to avoid competing on price.

Menu Suggestions:

• Maple-Braised Pork Shoulder with Roasted Apple Compote
• Pulled Pork Tacos with Charred Corn Salsa
• Grilled Pork Loin Chops with Chimichurri and Seasonal Greens

Poultry Insights

June 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

Tight supplies continue to impact the Canadian poultry market. Despite scheduled production increases heading into summer, availability remains limited, particularly for boneless breast and dark meat cuts. Imports surged over 25% in April, yet supply remains behind foodservice and retail needs. Chicken remains cost-competitive relative to beef but is currently priced higher than pork.

• Boneless breasts: Elevated pricing persists due to strong retail demand.
• Wings: Pricing remains firm ahead of summer promotions; supply is limited and expected to remain tight.
• Legs and thighs: Increased demand and higher imports are keeping dark meat prices strong, but more affordable than breast or wings.

What Can You Do?

• Plan Ahead: Secure product early (especially breast and leg meat) as prices are expected to rise 7–12% through July.
• Explore Alternatives: Boneless thighs and legs offer strong margins and are ideal for grilling, marinating, or international-inspired dishes.
• Add Value with Prep: Consider pre-marinated or pre-cooked chicken formats to reduce kitchen labour and add consistency across dishes.

Menu Suggestions:

• Grilled Chicken Thighs with Garlic-Herb Butter and Seasonal Greens
• Korean BBQ Chicken Drumsticks with Sesame Rice and Quick Kimchi
• Mediterranean Chicken Bowl with Hummus, Tabbouleh, and Pita Chips
• Buffalo Chicken Flatbread with Blue Cheese Drizzle and Celery Ribbons

Seafood Insights

June 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

The seafood market continues to experience volatility, with supply constraints and pricing fluctuations affecting various species:

• Shrimp: Prices are headed higher due to tighter global supplies and increased demand.
• Scallops: Larger sizes have seen significant price increases.
• Salmon: Supply challenges persist, leading to firm pricing.
• Lobster: Prices are stable but high, influenced by strong export demand.

What Can You Do?

• Diversify Offerings: Incorporate a variety of seafood options to mitigate the impact of price fluctuations on specific species.
• Highlight Sustainability: Emphasize sustainably sourced seafood on your menu to meet consumer demand and differentiate your offerings.
• Monitor Market Trends: Stay informed about seafood market developments to make proactive purchasing and menu decisions.
• Adjust Portion Sizes: Consider offering smaller portion sizes or sharing plates to manage costs while maintaining customer satisfaction.

Menu Suggestions:

• Grilled Shrimp Skewers: Marinated in herbs and spices, served with seasonal vegetables.
• Seared Scallop Salad: Featuring mixed greens, citrus segments, and a light vinaigrette.
• Salmon Poke Bowl: Fresh salmon with rice, avocado, and pickled vegetables.
• Lobster Roll Sliders: Miniature lobster rolls served with a side of coleslaw.

Current Key Produce Market Trends 

General 2025 Trend

• Vegetable prices expected to increase by 5-7% in 2025
• Fruit prices expected to increase by 1-3%

Strategies to Mitigate Price Increases

• Seasonal Menu Planning: Focus on in-season options like root vegetables (turnips, parsnips, carrots) and winter squash to reduce costs and create hearty, seasonal dishes.
• Portion Adjustments: Reduce portions of expensive produce while balancing plates with grains or legumes.
• Creative Substitutions: Replace high-cost ingredients, like imported greens, with affordable, nutrient-rich options like cabbage or kale.
• Preserve Versatility: Feature stable, versatile ingredients like sweet potatoes, beets, and apples in soups, salads, and desserts.
• Leverage Technology: Use predictive inventory management tools to optimize purchasing and reduce waste.

Price Alerts as of June 1, 2025

• Lemons: Demand continues to outpace supply; expect higher prices through June.
• Limes: Rain in Mexico is limiting harvest; smaller sizes dominate availability, raising prices.
• Cauliflower & Broccoli: Prices are elevated but stable; cooler weather slowed harvest in key regions.
• Romaine Hearts: Markets remain high due to tight availability and shifting weather conditions.
• Red & Yellow Bell Peppers: Tight supply and quality issues are keeping prices firm.
• Strawberries: Prices are falling as California production peaks.
• Cantaloupe & Honeydew: Markets are steady with improved sizing and strong internal quality.

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