Beef Insights

What’s Happening?

Beef prices have finally pulled back from the extreme highs reached earlier this summer.
AAA/Choice pricing has declined approximately 10% from its late-June peak. Ground beef has also softened significantly, with 81% lean grinds down roughly 20% over the past three weeks. Loins, rounds and flanks have all moved lower, creating better buying opportunities than operators have seen for several months.
This is welcome relief, but beef should not yet be considered inexpensive. Cattle supplies remain historically tight, the Canadian dollar is weak and beef prices are still far above their longer-term averages. Check our chart for individual cut pricing trends.

What Can You Do?

Take advantage of lower spot pricing where it supports an immediate menu feature.
Discuss fall and holiday rib needs before seasonal demand begins to build.
Continue controlling steak portions and charging appropriately for sauces, toppings and premium sides.

Pork Insights

What’s Happening?

Pork remains the strongest value opportunity in the protein market.
Loins are approximately 9% below last year, butts are about 7% lower and picnics are more than 20% below year-ago levels. These declines are especially significant when compared with beef, which remains sharply higher than both last year and pre-inflation levels.
Pork ribs have held up better because of summer grilling demand, although that seasonal support will normally begin to fade after Labour Day. Bellies [think bacon] have recently strengthened, but they remain well below the extreme values seen during previous market cycles.
Operators should take advantage of current opportunities but should not assume that every pork item will remain at today’s level indefinitely. Check our chart for individual cut pricing trends.

What Can You Do?

Make pork loins and chops a priority for August features.
Use butts and picnics for pulled pork and other batch-cooked applications.
Continue featuring ribs through the remaining summer grilling period.

Poultry Insights

What’s Happening?

Chicken remains an important value alternative to beef, but Canadian operators should not assume that all of the price relief being reported in the United States will immediately appear in Canada.
U.S. chicken production has expanded enough to place downward pressure on breast, wing and thigh markets. U.S. boneless skinless breast values are well below last year, and wing supplies are more comfortable than they have been during several recent summers.
Additional U.S. supply can improve import opportunities and reduce upward pressure on Canadian pricing. However, the weak Canadian dollar, import controls and the structure of the Canadian market may limit how much of that relief reaches operators.
The most immediate opportunity may be in wings and portion-controlled breast products. Rather than automatically lowering menu prices, operators can use improved costs to rebuild margin, create a limited-time promotion or offer a stronger-value combo. Check our chart for individual cut pricing trends.

What Can You Do?

Use improved costs to restore margin before making permanent menu-price changes.
Consider a wing promotion as football and late-summer sports demand approach.
Keep breast portions controlled through sandwiches, wraps, salads and bowls.

Seafood Insights

What’s Happening?

Seafood pricing remains mixed, with fewer dramatic market movements than operators have experienced in beef.
Imported shrimp markets are generally steady as new inventory arrives. This gives operators reasonable cost visibility, particularly when using frozen, peeled and portion-controlled products. Shrimp still works best as an ingredient in tacos, bowls, pasta and appetizers rather than as a large centre-of-plate portion.
Salmon remains a premium protein and should continue to be managed carefully. Even when commodity pricing is stable, the Canadian exchange rate keeps imported salmon expensive. Operators should avoid using oversized portions or pricing salmon as though it were a value entrée.
Whitefish species [Cod, Haddock, Pollock] remains the safest seafood strategy for independent operators. Cod, haddock and pollock can be purchased in consistent frozen portions and used across fish and chips, sandwiches, tacos and baskets. Breaded and battered products also provide better yield control and reduce skilled kitchen labour.

What Can You Do?

Serve shrimp as an accent in bowls, tacos, pasta and appetizers.
Keep salmon portions controlled and position the item as a premium choice.
Lead with frozen and portion-controlled whitefish species for high-volume execution.

Produce Insights

What’s Happening?

Produce conditions are more balanced than they were earlier in the summer, but extreme heat in California is creating quality and shelf-life concerns.
Lemons remain expensive because summer demand is strong and supplies are tight. Limes are currently more manageable but could begin increasing as smaller sizes become limited and quality issues develop. Small oranges are also tightening as back-to-school demand approaches.
Asparagus remains expensive and supplies are expected to remain limited through at least mid-August. Hothouse beefsteak and tomatoes-on-the-vine are also at risk because heat and crop transitions have reduced production. Field-grown round, Roma and cherry tomato markets are more stable, providing better substitution opportunities.

What Can You Do?

Order heat-sensitive produce in smaller quantities and turn inventory quickly.
Tighten receiving standards and inspect for heat-related quality issues.
Continue using frozen fruits and vegetables where they improve consistency and reduce waste.