Market Report

Beef Insights

May 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

Beef prices continued to firm through late April, with most primals trending seasonally higher. Middle meats—particularly loins and ribs—remain elevated due to upcoming grilling demand and packer-constrained supply. End cuts like chucks and rounds are starting to rebound as buyers seek better value. Ground beef remains exceptionally high, driven by strong retail demand and tight lean trimming supply.

The low Canadian dollar is increasing landed beef costs, especially from U.S. sources. Weekly production remains constrained, keeping pricing under pressure.

Foodservice beef demand is still soft, with operators facing margin pressure on steaks and burgers as customers are opting for other menu options.

What Can You Do?

• Menu Around the Ends: Chuck and round cuts are more affordable and work well in braised or sliced applications.
• Use Ground Beef Smartly: Position burgers to highlight the source grind [e.g., Sirloin Burger] and manage portion sizes.
• Track Loin Price Movements: If not done so already, be ready to buy if striploin or sirloin pricing softens mid-month.
• Promote Shareable Beef Items: Platters or beef-for-two dishes improve perceived value and reduce cost per plate.

• Braised Chuck Roast with Spring Vegetables: Succulent chuck roast with tender, garden-fresh carrots, peas, and baby potatoes.
• Chimichurri Flank Steak with Charred Corn: Juicy grilled steak topped with vibrant chimichurri and served with smoky corn.
• Hand-Pressed Chuck Burger with Garlic Aioli: Flavor-packed chuck burger with rich, velvety garlic aioli on a toasted bun.
• Montreal-Style Brisket Sandwich with Mustard Slaw: Savory brisket piled high with zesty mustard slaw on rye.

Pork Insights

May 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

Pork markets are steady heading into May. Despite seasonally lower slaughter numbers, prices across many cuts have remained attractive due to weak consumer demand and export uncertainty—particularly following China’s recent imposition of 25% tariffs on Canadian pork.

Retail pork tonnage and consumer demand are trending lower than expected despite relative affordability versus beef and chicken.

Loins, butts, and picnics remain attractively priced, especially for operators seeking alternatives to beef. Belly [Bacon] prices have shown some recent strength, but increases have been modest and inconsistent.

What Can You Do?

• Lean Into Value Cuts: Shoulder cuts like butts and picnics remain versatile and cost-effective for slow-cooked or smoked dishes.
• Reinforce Pork as Premium-Value: Promote pork as a centre-of-plate item that offers high flavour and portion satisfaction without beef’s price tag.
• Plan LTOs Around Stability: Prices are relatively steady—take advantage with time-limited promotions featuring such items as pork chops or ribs.

Menu Suggestions:

• Smoked Pork Butt Sliders with Pickled Slaw and Chipotle Mayo: Slow-smoked pork piled onto soft slider buns, topped with crisp pickled slaw and a smoky, spicy chipotle mayo.
• Maple-Mustard Glazed Loin Chop with Roasted Apple Compote: Thick-cut pork loin chop glazed with sweet maple and tangy mustard, served with a warm, caramelized apple compote.
• Pulled Pork Nachos with Jalapeño Cheese and Scallions: Hearty nachos layered with tender pulled pork, creamy jalapeño cheese sauce, and fresh-cut scallions.
• Braised Pork Shoulder Ragù with Parmesan Polenta: Rich, fall-apart pork shoulder slow-braised in tomato and wine, served over velvety parmesan-infused polenta.

Poultry Insights

May 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

Chicken continues to be the most cost-effective centre-of-plate protein, despite ongoing market tightness. While Q2 production allocations are up, actual production remains below targets. Domestic product shortages persist across breast and wing meat, and while imports are offsetting the gap, overall supply remains tight.

Retail and foodservice buyers alike are still scrambling to secure consistent supply, particularly for white meat cuts. Boneless breast prices are expected to rise 6–8% from April through June, less than seasonal norms, but still burdensome given the already high price starting point. Wings are trending steadily but are tight, with modest upward pricing expected. Leg prices remain elevated but are increasing at a slower pace than usual for spring.

Chicken remains well-positioned against beef, which continues to price itself out of many menu applications. However, chicken’s relative advantage over pork has narrowed. Demand is steady, but consumer response is more cautious than this time last year.

What Can You Do?

• Menu with Flexibility: Keep a rotating mix of white and dark meat dishes to protect margins.
• Lean on Dark Meat: Legs and thighs remain flavourful, margin-friendly options ideal for marinated, global-style dishes.
• Plan Ahead on Breasts and Wings: Lock in forward pricing or lean into further processed frozen portion-controlled product options to manage volatility.
• Maximize Perceived Value: Plate with high-flavour, lower-cost accompaniments to support margins.

Menu Suggestions:

• Lemon-Thyme Chicken Thighs with Couscous and Spring Peas: Golden-seared chicken thighs infused with lemon and thyme, served with fluffy couscous and sweet spring peas.
• Sticky Korean Chicken Drumsticks with Sesame Slaw: Glazed in a sweet and spicy gochujang sauce, these sticky drumsticks are paired with a crisp sesame cabbage slaw.
• Piri-Piri Grilled Chicken Breasts with Garlic Rice: Fire-kissed chicken breasts marinated in bold piri-piri spices, served with aromatic garlic rice.
• Classic Wings with Three Sauces: Buffalo, Honey Lime, and Chipotle BBQ: Crispy chicken wings served with your choice of fiery Buffalo, tangy honey-lime, or smoky chipotle BBQ sauce.

Seafood Insights

May 1, 2025

What’s Happening?

Seafood markets are experiencing mixed trends as we enter May.

Atlantic salmon prices are showing variability; while frozen portions remain steady, fresh Chilean salmon has seen price increases. Shrimp prices are mostly stable but are expected to firm up due to less-than-adequate fishing and production levels. ​

The weak Canadian dollar continues to impact the cost of imported seafood, making domestic options more appealing. However, global factors, including tariffs and supply chain disruptions, are contributing to price volatility across various seafood categories. ​

In Newfoundland and Labrador, snow crab harvesters have secured a minimum price of CAD $4.97 per pound for the 2025 season, which will cause prices to increase from your distributor.

What Can You Do?

• Diversify Seafood Offerings: Incorporate a mix of domestic and imported seafood to balance cost and availability.
• Leverage Stable Priced Items: Focus on menu items featuring seafood with stable pricing, such as frozen fish portions.
• Monitor Market Trends: Stay informed about global market developments, including tariffs and supply chain issues, to anticipate potential price changes.
• Optimize Menu Pricing: Adjust menu prices as needed to reflect current seafood costs while maintaining customer value perception.

Menu Suggestions:

• Grilled Atlantic Salmon with Lemon-Dill Sauce: Perfectly grilled salmon fillet topped with a bright, creamy lemon-dill sauce, capturing fresh coastal flavour.
• Shrimp Scampi Linguine with Garlic Butter: Plump shrimp sautéed in garlic butter and white wine, tossed with tender linguine and a touch of lemon.
• Snow Crab Cakes with Spicy Remoulade: Golden-browned crab cakes packed with sweet snow crab meat, served with a bold, tangy remoulade.
• Pan-Seared Tilapia with Roasted Vegetable Medley: Lightly crisped tilapia fillet served alongside a colourful mix of oven-roasted seasonal vegetables.

Current Key Produce Market Trends 

General 2025 Trend

• Vegetable prices expected to increase by 5-7% in 2025
• Fruit prices expected to increase by 1-3%

Strategies to Mitigate Price Increases

• Seasonal Menu Planning: Focus on in-season options like root vegetables (turnips, parsnips, carrots) and winter squash to reduce costs and create hearty, seasonal dishes.
• Portion Adjustments: Reduce portions of expensive produce while balancing plates with grains or legumes.
• Creative Substitutions: Replace high-cost ingredients, like imported greens, with affordable, nutrient-rich options like cabbage or kale.
• Preserve Versatility: Feature stable, versatile ingredients like sweet potatoes, beets, and apples in soups, salads, and desserts.
• Leverage Technology: Use predictive inventory management tools to optimize purchasing and reduce waste.

Price Alerts as of May 1, 2025

• Lettuce: Iceberg and romaine production is ramping up in Salinas, California, helping ease pricing.
• Tomatoes: Markets are climbing as supply transitions to other growing areas. Expect tight availability on all varieties through mid-May.
• Avocados: Prices are volatile. Larger sizes are dropping while small fruit (70–84ct) remains firm due to limited supply.
• Bell Peppers: Green pepper prices are rising as Mexico winds down and California ramps up. Red and yellow peppers remain steady but could follow suit.
• Cauliflower & Broccoli: Cauliflower markets are softening as California harvest expands. Broccoli remains steady with good availability.
• Strawberries: California supplies are increasing. Expect strong quality but some variability in size due to cool temps.
• Cucumbers: Eastern supplies are tight, pushing prices higher. Mexican product remains steady but leans toward lower grades.
• Squash: Western and eastern supplies are solid. Markets are stable with good quality reported across regions.
• Onions & Potatoes: Both markets remain steady with good supply.

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