Beef Insights

What’s Happening?

Beef prices have continued to soften through October, but the market is increasingly divided between premium cuts and value-oriented products. Ribs were the only primal category to advance, reflecting the seasonal strengthening associated with holiday demand. Briskets declined approximately 4.6% in the latest week and were roughly 9% below year-earlier levels. This makes brisket increasingly interesting for restaurants preparing smoked, braised and slow-cooked fall features.
Another important opportunity is emerging in top rounds and other roasting cuts. Wholesale prices have moved closer to the cost of lean ground beef, making whole-muscle roasting cuts more competitive for operators. Ground beef deserves another look as well. Domestic fat trimmings and lean trimmings have weakened, creating opportunities to review burger specifications and replacement costs. However, cattle prices remain firm, and reduced placements suggest that the underlying supply situation remains tight. This means the recent wholesale correction may not continue indefinitely. Premium ribeyes, tenderloins and striploins remain expensive, and holiday rib demand could keep those cuts elevated through year-end.Check our chart for individual cut pricing trends.

What Can You Do?

Discuss holiday rib and tenderloin requirements with your distributor before seasonal demand builds further.
Continue controlling portions on premium steaks.
Use roast beef across multiple menu applications to improve labour efficiency and minimize waste.

Pork Insights

What’s Happening?

Pork is unquestionably the strongest value story entering November. Wholesale markets have continued to weaken, with heavy North American production, disappointing domestic demand and abundant global supplies keeping pressure on prices. Prices are declining faster than normal seasonal patterns, with no convincing evidence yet that the market has found a bottom.  Bellies have experienced particularly sharp declines, creating attractive opportunities for bacon programs. Hams have also weakened considerably despite the approaching holiday season. Loins remain competitively priced, while butts, picnics and ribs offer good opportunities for profitable fall menu features.
For operators, the immediate message is simple: pork offers an unusual opportunity to deliver generous portions and attractive menu prices without sacrificing profitability. Check our chart for individual cut pricing trends.

What Can You Do?

Feature pork prominently throughout November.
Review bacon pricing and consider bacon-forward menu promotions.
Take advantage of inexpensive loins for chops, schnitzel and roasted pork dishes.

Poultry Insights

What’s Happening?

Chicken remains one of the more challenging proteins for restaurant operators, although some meaningful opportunities are developing. Canadian chicken demand remains exceptionally strong, even with substantial increases in production and improved availability. Breast pricing remains near historically high levels, although it has begun its normal seasonal decline.
Wings are the more interesting opportunity. Canadian wing prices declined sharply in September and were running below both year-earlier levels and historical averages. Meanwhile, leg prices rebounded and remained comparatively expensive. From June through September, breast prices declined approximately 4%, wings fell 11%, and legs declined 6% before their subsequent rebound.  U.S. breast and wing markets remain substantially softer than Canadian markets, but supply management, import restrictions and exchange rates limit how much of that relief reaches Canadian operators. For restaurants, the opportunity is less about expecting dramatically cheaper chicken and more about choosing the right products and specifications. Check our chart for individual cut pricing trends.

What Can You Do?

Requote wings for hockey, football and holiday gathering promotions.
Review breast costs as seasonal pricing eases.
Don’t assume thighs and legs are the cheapest chicken options.

Seafood Insights

What’s Happening?

Seafood markets remain mixed entering November, with operators needing to distinguish between products offering genuine value and those facing supply or currency-related pressure. Black Tiger Shrimp remains a product worth revisiting. Imported shrimp markets have been more favourable than during previous periods of elevated pricing, although costs vary by origin, size, count and processing specification. Frozen peeled and deveined shrimp continues to offer independent operators dependable portion control and relatively little preparation waste.
Atlantic salmon remains a premium menu protein. Following the substantial price volatility experienced over the past two years, operators should continue comparing fresh and frozen salmon specifications rather than assuming that earlier high costs still apply. Origin, fish size, freight and exchange rates can all materially influence delivered pricing.
For traditional fish-and-chips and sandwich applications, Atlantic cod, haddock and pollock remain practical choices, but their costs and availability should be evaluated separately. Seafood purchasing should remain selective. A small change in the price of an expensive fish can have a greater effect on plate cost than a much larger percentage change in a lower-cost ingredient.

What Can You Do?

Compare Atlantic cod, haddock and Pacific pollock for their intended applications.
Use frozen, individually portioned seafood where it improves consistency and reduces waste.
Avoid adding seafood items that require numerous ingredients used nowhere else on the menu.

Produce Insights

What’s Happening?

Produce is entering a particularly challenging transition period, with significant price and availability differences between categories. Lettuce is the biggest concern. Iceberg, romaine and leaf lettuce supplies remain tight as disease pressure, inconsistent yields and lighter weights reduce production in California
Tomatoes are another major problem. Supplies are extremely tight across growing regions. California production is ending, earlier weather disruptions continue to affect Mexico, and rain has delayed the transition to Florida production. Greenhouse beefsteak and tomatoes-on-the-vine are also experiencing shortages. Potato markets are elevated, particularly larger russets, where supplies remain limited and demand is strong. This is important for operators serving high volumes of baked potatoes and fresh-cut fries. Strawberries are also expected to become more expensive following California rain and harvesting disruptions, while green beans, snow peas and some pepper varieties are experiencing supply pressure. Asparagus, which was particularly expensive earlier this fall, has also stabilized.

What Can You Do?

Review salad pricing and portions. Lettuce costs can quickly erode margins on high-volume menu items.
Monitor tomato specifications and consider alternative preparations where appropriate.
Review potato sizing and yields rather than automatically purchasing larger-count russets.