Market Report

Beef Insights

October 1, 2024

What’s Happening?

Beef prices are projected to stay high as cattle supplies continue to dwindle, with no significant increase expected until 2025. Middle meats like striploins have seen slight price reductions, but cuts such as chuck and round remain in high demand, driven largely by the need for grinding meat for burgers. Ribs prices will be escalating into the December holiday season.

Foodservice demand for beef has been soft, as elevated beef menu prices have made these less attractive to consumers.

What Can You do?

• Focus on Value-Added Beef Dishes: Highlight dishes like braised brisket, beef stew, or slow-cooked short ribs, which use less expensive cuts but can command higher menu prices through creative preparation.
• Feature Shareable Plates: Offer smaller portions or shareable beef platters that allow customers to enjoy beef dishes at a lower cost without sacrificing quality or experience.
• Seasonal Beef Menus: Leverage seasonal ingredients and beef price trends to create limited-time beef specials that can justify higher prices due to their uniqueness and perceived value.
• Promote Beef Alternatives: Use more pork or chicken options as affordable alternatives to high-priced beef, giving customers variety while protecting your margins.

• Beef Shoulder Tenderloin with Herb Butter: Pan-sear beef shoulder tenderloin medallions, finish with herb butter, and serve with roasted garlic mashed potatoes.
• Spiced Beef Flat Iron Steak Salad: Grill flat iron steak seasoned with a spice rub, slice thinly, and serve over a fresh summer salad with cherry tomatoes, cucumbers, and a balsamic vinaigrette.
• Coffee-Rubbed Beef Tri-Tip: Rub beef tri-tip with coffee and spices, grill to medium-rare, and serve with a side of sweet potato fries and a tangy coleslaw.
• Slow-Cooked Beef Brisket Sliders: Slow-cook beef brisket until tender, shred then serve on a mini brioche bun with pickled onions and smoky BBQ sauce.

Pork Insights

October 1, 2024

What’s Happening?

Pork supplies are expected to exceed last year’s levels through the fall and winter, driving down prices across key cuts. This period of robust production ensures a stable supply of pork products at competitive prices. Retailers are already promoting pork as a more affordable alternative to beef, and foodservice operators can take advantage of this trend. Cuts like tenderloins, ribs, and chops offer excellent value to cost-conscious consumers.

As the December holiday season approaches, hams may experience a slight price increase due to higher demand, but overall, pork prices should remain favourable. Pork continues to play a key role in balancing menus as beef prices stay elevated, making it a strategic choice for operators looking to manage food costs. Pork should feature prominently in retail and restaurant promotions during this period.

What Can You Do?

• Highlight Pork’s Value: Position pork dishes as cost-effective yet premium alternatives to higher-priced beef. Cuts like ribs and tenderloins can be promoted at lower prices, appealing to budgetconscious diners.
• Diversify Menu Offerings: With steady pork supplies and low costs, expand your menu to include new and creative pork dishes. Slow-roasted pork shoulder, pork belly, or braised pork can add rich, flavourful options that maintain a high-quality dining experience without breaking the bank.
• Emphasize Pork’s Versatility: Use a variety of cooking techniques like braising, grilling, smoking, and roasting to bring out the unique flavours of different pork cuts. Offering diverse preparation methods adds variety to your menu and keeps your offerings exciting.
• Bundle Pork with Seasonal Sides: Create meal deals or special combos that pair pork dishes with locally sourced, seasonal sides. This enhances the dining experience while showcasing the freshness and value of your offerings.

Menu Suggestions:

• Stuffed Pork Loin: Roast a pork loin stuffed with spinach, mushrooms, and goat cheese, served with a side of roasted seasonal vegetables.
• BBQ Pulled Pork Sliders: Slow-cook pork shoulder in a tangy barbecue sauce, shred, and serve on mini buns with coleslaw.
• Pork Schnitzel: Bread and pan-fry pork cutlets, serve with a lemon wedge and a side of warm potato salad.
• Grilled Pork Belly: Offer crispy grilled pork belly, served with caramelized onions, sautéed greens, and a tangy mustard sauce. This adds a gourmet twist to a budget-friendly cut, ensuring both taste and profitability.

Poultry Insights

October 1, 2024

What’s Happening?

Chicken prices are expected to remain stable and affordable heading into the fall and early winter. Breasts are forecasted to see a continued decline due to ample supplies, although this drop may occur more gradually as prices are already relatively low. Leg prices, while having receded from their peak in late spring, are expected to stabilize or decrease slightly. Wings are projected to hold steady, as the market benefits from strong domestic and imported supplies. Chicken’s relative cost advantage over beef continues to make it an attractive option for both retailers and foodservice operators.

What Can You Do?

• Diversify Chicken Offerings: Leverage the affordability of different chicken cuts—thighs, drumsticks, and wings—by featuring a broader range of chicken options on your menu. This allows you to cater to various customer preferences while maintaining cost control.
• Introduce Global Flavours: Incorporate unique marinades and rubs from different culinary traditions like Mediterranean, Asian, and Latin to create exciting, flavour-packed chicken dishes that stand out. This can enhance lower-cost cuts while offering a premium experience.
• Promote Family-Style Options: Offer family-style chicken meals that include multiple pieces or a whole chicken with sides. This approach caters to value-seeking diners and encourages larger group orders, driving higher ticket sales.
• Focus on Health-Conscious Dishes: Emphasize healthy chicken preparations like grilled options. Pair with fresh salads or seasonal vegetables to attract health-conscious customers looking for balanced, nutritious meals.

Menu Suggestions:

• Grilled Chicken Thighs with Mediterranean Rub: Serve tender, grilled thighs marinated in a zesty Mediterranean spice blend, paired with a fresh cucumber-tomato salad.
• BBQ Chicken Drumsticks: Slow-cooked drumsticks coated in smoky barbecue sauce, served with coleslaw and cornbread for a satisfying, value-driven meal.
• Crispy Chicken Wings with Asian Glaze: Toss crispy wings in a tangy, spicy Asian glaze and serve with a side of pickled vegetables for a unique twist.
• Roasted Herb Chicken Breasts: Offer a healthy option with roasted chicken breasts seasoned with fresh herbs, served alongside seasonal roasted vegetables.

Seafood Insights

October 1, 2024

What’s Happening?

As we move into the final quarter of 2024, seafood prices continue to be influenced by various factors.

The shrimp market remains unsettled, with farm-raised white and black tiger shrimp prices slowly rising due to ongoing supply gaps and higher shipping costs. Shrimp however remains an affordable, versatile, and profitable menu item.

For crab, prices for all sizes of King Crab are elevated. Canadian Snow Crab prices have also risen, particularly for larger sizes, driven by strong demand and tight supplies.

Salmon prices are stabilizing, with frozen portions of Atlantic salmon offering flexibility for foodservice operators. Prices for fresh salmon have risen slightly, but the overall cost remains manageable, making it a strong option for premium seafood dishes.

Whitefish prices, including cod, pollock, and haddock, continue to increase due to tighter inventories, a situation expected to persist through the fourth quarter. Rising freight costs and supply chain challenges are contributing to these price hikes.

Scallops are experiencing volatility, particularly larger sea scallops, where poor fishing conditions are leading to potential price increases.

The lobster market is facing shortages, especially for live lobsters, resulting in record-high prices. Suppliers report weak catches, which are putting additional pressure on pricing. However, warm-water lobster tails have maintained more stable pricing.

What Can You Do?

• Menu Flexibility with Portion Sizes: Adjust portion sizes for premium seafood to manage rising costs. Offer these items as part of smaller, high-quality dishes or paired with lower-cost proteins, vegetables, or grains to balance the price point while maintaining appeal.
• Utilize Frozen or Processed Options: For items like shrimp, crab, or lobster where fresh prices are escalating, consider using frozen or pre-processed alternatives. Frozen seafood maintains quality and is often available at a more predictable and stable price, helping manage food costs without sacrificing menu variety.
• Highlight Seafood as a Premium Upsell: With the volatility of premium seafood like King Crab or lobster, present these as luxury or limited-time offers on your menu. This strategy can justify higher pricing while creating a sense of exclusivity and urgency for customers to try these items.
• Focus on Value-Added Seafood Dishes: Use less expensive seafood like tilapia, mussels, or cod in creative ways by enhancing them with flavorful sauces, marinades, or unique preparation methods such as smoking or grilling. This allows you to offer seafood dishes that appear premium but maintain reasonable food costs.

Menu Suggestions:

• Pollock Tacos with Cilantro Lime Slaw: Affordable pollock, seasoned and grilled, served in soft tortillas with a refreshing cilantro lime slaw for a fresh, sustainable seafood option.
• Pan-Seared Tilapia with Lemon Butter Sauce: Highlight tilapia as a versatile, cost-effective fish paired with a simple, flavourful lemon butter sauce, served alongside seasonal vegetables.
• Grilled Atlantic Salmon Salad: Offer a healthy, premium option by serving grilled Atlantic salmon over a bed of mixed greens, topped with a light citrus vinaigrette and seasonal fruit.
• Warm-Water Lobster Tails with Herb Butter: For a luxury menu item at a more stable price, serve warm-water lobster tails with herb butter and garlic mashed potatoes, offering a high-end experience without the steep cost of live lobster.
• Mussels in White Wine Garlic Sauce: Present mussels as an affordable yet elegant dish, steamed in white wine and garlic, served with crusty bread for dipping.

These menu options balance premium flavours with cost-effective ingredients, helping operators manage seafood price fluctuations while maintaining quality.

Current Key Produce Market Trends 

General 2024 Trend

• Vegetable prices expected to increase by 5-7% in 2025
• Fruit prices expected to increase by 1-3%

Strategies to Mitigate Price Increases

• Seasonal Menu Planning: Utilize in-season produce for cost-efficiency and customer appeal
• Portion Control: Adjust portion sizes to save costs
• Waste Reduction: Reduce spoilage and make the most of overripe items
• Menu Flexibility: Adapt to price changes with substitute ingredients
• Price Adjustments: Update menu prices carefully and transparently
• Creative Menu Design: Innovate with more affordable ingredients
• Monitor Market Trends: Keep an eye on market fluctuations for essential ingredients

Price Alerts as of October 1, 2024

• Tomatoes: Round and Roma tomato prices continue to rise, driven by strong demand and moderate supply. Grape tomatoes remain stable, while cherry tomatoes show minimal price changes.
• Lettuce: Iceberg and romaine prices remain high, largely due to heat-related yield losses in California. These elevated prices are expected to persist through October.
• Potatoes: Russet potatoes face rising prices due to limited new crop availability, while red and yellow varieties hold steady.
• Onions: Prices are increasing as the Pacific Northwest’s new crop struggles to meet demand.
• Bell Peppers: Price increases for green and red bell peppers are being driven by lower yields in California and Mexico.
• Cauliflower and Broccoli: Both are experiencing higher prices, as heat damage in California has limited supply.
• Cucumbers: Prices are elevated, with fluctuating supply from Mexico and California.
• Avocados: Larger avocado prices are increasing due to weather-related supply issues in Mexico.
• Asparagus: Supply constraints from Mexico are causing price volatility.
• Blueberries: Light supplies and higher prices are anticipated until early October.

Several key produce items are experiencing price increases due to weather impacts and high demand. Adjusting menus and exploring alternative ingredients such as frozen options may help manage your menu costs.