Market Report

Beef

November 23, 2023

We have observed a surprising trend, particularly concerning rib prices. Traditionally, as we approach late November, rib prices are expected to surge, reaching their annual peak. However, this year presents an anomaly, with rib prices showing only a marginal increase since the end of summer. This deviation from the norm is particularly noteworthy, considering that rib prices are typically on a steep upward trajectory during this period.

Despite relatively modest production volumes in recent weeks, the broader beef market has witnessed a downward movement in prices for most beef items. This trend suggests a subtle yet noticeable weakening in beef demand. While, in a broader historical context, beef demand remains robust, recent weeks have indicated a slight but discernible decline.

Forecasting trends in the beef market, especially a downturn in demand during mid-November, is challenging. However, current market dynamics seem to affirm this unexpected shift. Our fundamental forecast anticipates a continued gentle decline in AAA/Choice beef prices over the coming weeks, followed by a more pronounced drop from mid-December as demand for middle meats wanes.

Furthermore, the latest weekly data indicates a softening in the beef export market. With the US population currently engaged in Thanksgiving celebrations, beef has temporarily taken a backseat, likely leading to further dips in wholesale prices. This seasonal shift could have ripple effects on the Canadian market, influencing both supply and demand dynamics.

The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY TO LOWER.”

• Ribs – Prices are steady to lower
• Striploins – Prices are steady. 
• Top Sirloins – Prices are steady.
• Tenderloins – Prices are steady to higher.
• Briskets – Prices are steady to lower.
• Chucks – Prices are steady to lower.
• Rounds – Prices are steady to lower.
• Outside Skirt – Prices are steady at a low level.
• Flank Steak – Prices are steady.
• Ground Beef – Prices are steady to higher.

Pork

November 23, 2023

After experiencing some slight increases, pork prices have taken a modest downturn in the last few weeks. The decline is most pronounced in loins, but hams and bellies have also contributed to this downward trend. Notably, bellies, which are primarily used for bacon, also continue to see lower prices.

The loin primal is closely mirroring last year’s price trends. If this pattern persists, we might not see a price bottom for loins until mid-December. 

In contrast, butts and picnics have maintained their prices, and we expect this to continue in the near term. 

Looking ahead, the near-term forecast indicates a likelihood of price drops continuing at least into early December. The overarching trend in pork demand remains weak, with prices easing gradually in a controlled manner. A key question is whether we are approaching a price bottom. Our analysis suggests that this bottom might not be too far off, indicating a potential turning point in the market.

As we look to the next few weeks, the market is expected to see further softening, particularly in hams and loins. 

The market call for the next few weeks is “LOWER.”

• Side Ribs – Prices are steady to lower.
• Back Ribs – Prices are steady to lower.
• Tenderloins – Prices are steady.
• Loins – Prices are steady to lower.
• Hams – Prices are steady to lower.
• Butts – Prices are steady.
• Picnics – Prices are steady.
• Bellies (Bacon) – Prices moved lower.

Poultry

November 23, 2023

As we head into the peak of the growing season for the North American chicken industry, we are witnessing an increase in the overall volume of chicken products in the market. This seasonal surge is a typical trend, influenced by several factors including consumer demand, feed costs, and broader agricultural cycles.

In terms of specific product categories, there is a noticeable tightening in chicken breasts. On the other hand, the demand for chicken wings has shown a slight softening across all sizes. 

Dark meat continues to hold a strong position in the market, buoyed by consistent demand. This segment often benefits from its affordability and versatility. 

Whole birds are exhibiting a mostly steady to lower trend in pricing. This could be reflective of the increased supply due to the peak season. 

The current dynamics in the chicken market present opportunities to capitalize on the price trends, especially on wings. 

The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY.”

[Note, there are wide regional variances in poultry prices in Canada]

• Whole Birds – CDN prices are steady to lower.
• Wings – CDN prices are lower.
• Boneless Breasts – CDN prices are moving higher.
• Legs – CDN prices are steady.
• Thighs – CDN prices are steady.

Seafood

November 23, 2023

Imported Shrimp Market: Despite experiencing historic lows, the imported shrimp market is showing signs of stabilization. Prices are expected to level off soon, which could indicate a potential shift in market dynamics as we approach the holiday season.

Holiday Demand for all Shellfish: With the holidays approaching, there is an anticipated increase in the usage of shellfish items. This seasonal trend often leads to a spike in demand, affecting prices and availability.

Frozen Tuna Market: Skipjack prices softened in October, following improved catches in the Pacific Ocean, which could lead to more favorable pricing for foodservice operators.

Tilapia Market Dynamics: Prices to major markets were significantly lower in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022, although there was a slight increase in prices for the first half of 2023. Prices now have stabilized.

The current trends suggest a need for strategic planning in menu offerings and procurement, considering the potential shifts in seafood prices and availability as we head into the holiday season.

The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY.”  

• US White Shrimp– Prices are steady.
• Imported Tiger Shrimp – Prices are steady.
• Mahi Mahi – Prices are steady to lower.
• Tilapia Filet – Prices are steady.
• Cod Filet – Prices are steady.
• Pangasius [Basa] – Prices are steady.
• Tuna Yellowfin – Prices are steady to lower.
• Farmed Salmon Atlantic – Prices are steady to higher.
• Alaskan Pollock – Prices are steady.
• Haddock – Prices are steady.
• Flounder – Prices are steady.
• Snow Crab – Prices are steady. Supply is tight on larger sizes. [Canadian product]. 
• Crabmeat [Blue] – Prices are steady.
• Sea Scallops – Prices are steady.
• Swordfish – Prices are steady.
• King Crab – Prices are steady.
• Lobster – Prices are steady.

Vegetables

November 23 2023

We have highlighted [*] items that are experiencing significant upward pricing pressure.

• *Corn – Tight supplies on strong demand is strong. Prices are higher due to weather related issues.
• Tomatoes – Generally prices are steady other than grape tomatoes where prices are higher due to very tight supplies.
• *Bell Peppers – Red and yellow peppers are very short as we transition growing areas. Hurricane Norma delayed the start of the season.
• *Chili Peppers – Prices will be higher in the East until production gets underway in Florida. The California season has ended while harvesting is getting a late start in Mexico due to Hurricane Irma.
• Broccoli – Prices are generally higher as we transition growing areas. Quality issues are being reported.
• Cauliflower – Prices have moved lower on increasing supplies.
• Celery – Prices are steady to lower on good supplies. 
• Carrots – Prices are steady on good supplies but higher on jumbos.
• Squash & Zucchini – Prices are rising as demand is strengthening due to change in growing regions. 
• Cabbage – Prices are steady, and supplies are good on both red and green cabbage.
• *Green Beans – Supply in the East are tight due to holiday demand and prices are very high. The situation is worse in the West due to weather related issues.
• Brussel Sprouts – Prices are steady on improved supplies.
• Asparagus – Prices are steady but likely to move higher. Peruvian supplies are expected to fall.
• Cucumber – Good supplies in the East however the hurricanes in the West have caused supply issues.
• Lettuce – New harvest is under way. Prices will remain steady at the lower levels in the coming weeks.
• Spring Mix/Spinach/Tender Greens – Prices and supplies are steady to lower on good supplies.
• Eggplant – Prices are steady to higher in the East but lower in the West.
• Cilantro – Prices are steady to lower on improving supplies.
• Potatoes – Prices remain steady on most varieties.
• Onions –Prices are steady to higher on all varieties on greater holiday demand.
• Garlic – Markets are steady on good supplies. 

Mushrooms

November 23, 2023

• Mushrooms– Prices and supplies are steady.

Mixed Berries

November 23, 2023

• Strawberries – Prices are higher as we transition growing regions.
• Raspberries – Prices are steady to lower on increasing supplies from Mexico.
• Blackberries – Prices will be moving lower on increasing supplies.
• Blueberries – Prices are steady to lower on increasing supplies. 
• Grapes – High prices persist; Western supplies will remain low through the end of the season. Imports will become available in mid-December.

Citrus

October 23, 2023

• Oranges – Prices are starting to move lower. The Valencia season has ended. New crop Navel stocks are increasing.
• Limes – Prices are steady to lower on a temporary drop in demand.
• Lemons – Prices are steady to lower on increasing supplies.

Fruit

November 23, 2023

• Avocado – Prices are steady to lower on improving supplies.
• Apples – Prices are steady.
• Pears – Prices are steady.
• Bananas -Prices are steady.
• Melons – All varieties of melons are steady.
• Pineapple – Prices are steady.