Market Report

Beef

December 14, 2023

There continues to be a noticeable shift towards lower beef prices, driven by growing consumer resistance to high retail and foodservice prices and an increase in market-ready cattle. This trend is expected to continue, with a potential backlog of cattle in feed yards that could take months to clear. This situation is likely to coincide with the first quarter of the year when beef demand is typically weak, raising the likelihood of more substantial price reductions.

However, it’s important to maintain a broader perspective. Despite the short-term decrease in prices, the longer-term outlook suggests a reduction in the cattle herd, which could eventually lead to higher cattle and beef pricing than what was seen in 2023, potentially by mid 2024. For the immediate future, specifically in Q1, beef buyers should adopt a hand-to-mouth procurement approach. For specific cuts, the holiday season is pushing rib and tenderloin prices higher. Strips are offering good value while chuck and round prices are headed lower.
While there’s uncertainty about reaching a market bottom, the current overall trend suggests further price drops.

The market call for the next few weeks is “LOWER.”

• Ribs – Prices are steady to higher.
• Striploins – Prices are steady. 
• Top Sirloins – Prices are steady to lower.
• Tenderloins – Prices are steady to higher.
• Briskets – Prices are steady to lower.
• Chucks – Prices are steady to lower.
• Rounds – Prices are steady to lower.
• Outside Skirt – Prices are steady to lower.
• Flank Steak – Prices are steady to lower.
• Ground Beef – Prices are steady to lower.

Pork

December 14, 2023

It appears increasingly unlikely that pork will see a significant demand increase to boost prices. Contributing to this trend are larger-than expected slaughter levels, leading to a continued decrease in pork prices through December. Notably, the demand for pork bellies, commonly used for bacon, is particularly weak. While demand for pork products tends to be cyclical, the industry may need to implement more substantial reductions in the breeding herd than initially expected to see any significant price increases.
At this point, the market has not yet reached the bottom of this demand cycle. There’s a noticeable consumer fatigue regarding pork consumption this fall, and continued high production levels pose a risk of further dampening consumer interest. The current forecast suggests that pork prices will continue to drift lower, reaching a bottom by the end of this month. A gradual increase in prices is expected after the start of the new year. However, this year’s domestic demand for pork is weaker compared to previous years, compounded by an abundance of hog supplies, and increasing carcass weights.
For pork buyers, the current market conditions suggest that there is minimal risk of substantial price increases soon. Therefore, we can continue regular buying activities without significant concern for sudden price hikes. This situation presents an opportunity to menu more pork based on the current low pork prices.

The market call for the next few weeks is “LOWER.”

• Side Ribs – Prices are moving lower.
• Back Ribs – Prices are moving lower.
• Tenderloins – Prices continue at very low levels.
• Loins – Prices are steady to lower.
• Hams – Prices are steady to lower.
• Butts – Prices are steady to lower.
• Picnics – Prices are steady to lower.
• Bellies (Bacon) – Prices continue to move lower.

Poultry

December 14, 2023

Currently, on the product side, chicken breasts are experiencing a tightening in supply, indicating potential price increases. Conversely, the softening in demand for chicken wings continues across all sizes, presenting a potential opportunity for cost-effective procurement. Dark meat maintains a strong position due affordability and versatility. Whole birds, on the other hand, are showing a mostly steady to lower trend in pricing, likely a reflection of the increased
supply during this peak season.

Looking forward, the demand for chicken, driven by in-home dining and foodservice sectors, remains strong and is currently being met with ample frozen stocks. However, with competitive meats priced relatively higher than chicken, Canadian poultry demand and consumption are expected to remain high, putting pressure on these stocks. Imports from the U.S. are anticipated to increase in 2024, potentially easing some price pressures however prices are expected to be higher year-over-year. This outlook suggests that operators should plan strategically for potential price increases in the coming year.

The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY.”

[Note, there are wide regional variances in poultry prices in Canada]

• Whole Birds – CDN prices are steady to lower.
• Wings – CDN prices are lower.
• Boneless Breasts – CDN prices are steady to higher.
• Legs – CDN prices are steady.
• Thighs – CDN prices are steady to lower.

Seafood

December 14, 2023

Global seafood trade declined in both volume and value in the first half of the year, with major markets, including the US, experiencing contractions. US imports are projected to decrease by 16% in value in 2023 due to reduced consumer demand and lower import volumes for key species. Despite easing concerns of an economic downturn, inflation and slow economic growth are impacting consumer spending, leading to a preference for more affordable farmed fish over pricier wild-caught whitefish.

In Canada, the average seafood entrée menu prices vary by dining category: $32.29 for fine dining, $24.37 for mid-scale, and $14.97 for casual dining. Over 70% of foodservice operators include seafood on their menus, with Shrimp [+3%], Salmon [+8%], Tuna [+3%], Scallop [+9%], Crab [+5%], Lobster [-3%], Smoked Salmon [+12%], Calamari [-5%], Mussels [+11%], Oysters [Even], Cod & Haddock [-6%] being the top entrée items. Emerging menu items include Oyster Appetizers, Fish of the Day, Seafood Salads, Octopus Entrees, Sea Bass Entrees, Halibut Entrees, Caviar, Tuna Entrees, Kids Fish & Chips, and a seafood item as an add-on to an entrée.

Remember, the imported shrimp market, after reaching historic lows, is stabilizing with prices expected to rise soon and the upcoming holiday season is likely to boost demand for shellfish, influencing prices and availability.

The market call for the next few weeks is “STEADY.”  

• US White Shrimp– Prices are steady.
• Imported Tiger Shrimp – Prices are steady.
• Mahi Mahi – Prices are steady to lower.
• Tilapia Filet – Prices are steady.
• Cod Filet – Prices are steady.
• Pangasius [Basa] – Prices are steady to lower.
• Tuna Yellowfin – Prices are steady to lower.
• Farmed Salmon Atlantic – Prices are steady to higher.
• Alaskan Pollock – Prices are steady.
• Haddock – Prices are steady.
• Flounder – Prices are steady.
• Snow Crab – Prices are steady. Supply is tight on larger sizes. [Canadian product]. 
• Crabmeat [Blue] – Prices are steady.
• Sea Scallops – Prices are steady.
• Swordfish – Prices are steady.
• King Crab – Prices are steady [there would be an Alaska Red King Crab season for 2023].
• Lobster – Prices are steady to higher.

Vegetables

December 14, 2023

We have highlighted [*] items that are experiencing significant upward pricing pressure.

• *Corn – Supplies in the East are down significantly causing higher prices. Better supplies in the West.
• *Tomatoes – Prices are high on all varieties except Cherry tomatoes due to weather related issues in Florida which has affected supplies.
• Bell Peppers – Green bell prices are stable. Red/Yellow prices are increasing due to supply issues. Increasing Mexican and Western production should begin to positively influence supply and price soon.
• Chili Peppers – Prices continue to be higher in the East, but Mexico supplies are increasing.
• Broccoli – Adequate supplies coupled with weak demand equals lower prices.
• Cauliflower – Prices continue to move lower on increasing supplies.
• Celery – Expected holiday demand is beginning to push prices higher.
• Carrots – Prices are steady on good supplies.
• Squash & Zucchini – Prices are up as Eastern supplies are tightening as recent rains have affected harvests. Mexican production is also transitioning.
• Cabbage – Prices are steady, and supplies are good on both red and green cabbage.
• *Green Beans – Supply in the East are tight due to holiday demand and prices are very high. The situation is improving in the West.
• Brussel Sprouts – Prices continue steady on improved supplies.
• Asparagus – Supplies are low due to transitional growing areas and weather-related issues. Prices are steady but likely to move higher. Peruvian supplies are limited.
• Cucumber – Prices are moving lower as production and Mexican imports increase.
• Lettuce – Good supplies and lower prices on all varieties.
• Spring Mix/Spinach/Tender Greens – Prices and supplies are steady to lower on good supplies.
• Eggplant – Prices are moving lower on increasing supplies.
• Cilantro – Prices are steady to lower on improving supplies.
• Potatoes – Prices remain steady on most varieties.
• Onions – Prices continue to increase as demand rises. Expect markets to remain higher into January when the Mexican comes online.
• Garlic – Markets are steady on good supplies. 

Mushrooms

December 14, 2023

• Mushrooms– Prices and supplies are steady.

Mixed Berries

December 14, 2023

• Strawberries – Supplies are improving from Mexico, Florida, and California. Prices are moving lower.
• Raspberries – Prices are steady to lower on increasing supplies from Mexico.
• Blackberries – Prices will be moving lower on increasing supplies.
• Blueberries – Prices are steady to higher on lower imported supply.
• Grapes – High prices persist; California stocks will remain short while imports will start shipping over the next few weeks.

Citrus

December 14, 2023

• Oranges – Navel prices and supplies are steady on excellent quality fruit.
• Limes – Prices continue steady to lower.
• Lemons – Prices continue steady to lower.

Fruit

December 14, 2023

• Avocado – Prices are steady to lower on improving supplies.
• Apples – Prices are steady.
• Pears – Prices are steady.
• Bananas -Prices are steady.
• Melons – All varieties of melons are steady with exception of Honeydews.
• Pineapple – Prices are steady.